Cowboys (7-3) Are Favorites In This Epic Thanksgiving Day Betting Preview

November 23, 2022
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Breaking down the spread and Over/Under total for this Thanksgiving Day game and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Giants at Cowboys on November 24. Gobble, gobble.

Giants At Cowboys Thanksgiving
Giants At Cowboys Thanksgiving

Giants at Cowboys Betting Preview

Picks and Predictions

Week 11 saw Dak Prescott put in his best effort since returning from an early-season injury. Dak threw for 286 yards versus Vikings, completed 88% of his passes, and connected for two touchdown. the bulk of that damage done in only three quarters of football as the Cowboys took their foot off the gas in the 40-3 win at Minnesota.

Dak can add to that resume and his legend in Big D with a strong showing on Thanksgiving this Thursday. The table is set for Prescott to feast, facing a Giants defense that sits 24th in DVOA against the pass and could be down multiple bodies in the secondary.

New York Giants will be without starting corner Adoree’ Jackson while the CB on the other side, Fabian Moreau, missed practice with a rib injury. Starting free safety Dane Belton is questionable after being limited Tuesday, as is reserved SS Jason Pinnock, and the secondary is still without FS Xavier McKinney.

Prescott has multiple options in the passing game, with WRs CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup looking exploit those soft spots in the New York secondary on the outside. Tight end Dalton Schultz has enjoyed having Dak back and RB Tony Pollard is quickly becoming one of the best dual-threats in the league, coming off a 109-yard, two-TD receiving day against Minnesota.

Prescott’s passing yards prop for Week 12 sits at 242.5 yards. While it doesn’t seem like much, the game script of a near double-digit spread could see plenty of handoffs and Dallas killing clock in the second half. On top of that, the G-Men tend to play keep away with the football, running a methodical pace and ranking among the top possession offenses in the land.

Even when healthy, this New York pass protection has allowed QB Daniel Jones to feel pressure on 28.9% of drop-backs. This is second highest in the NFL. The Cowboys are also the seventh-ranked defense in third down conversions allowed, giving the ball back to Prescott and the offense, which has run 68.7 average plays the past three games.

Spread Analysis

Dallas opened as low as 8-point home chalk for this Thursday contest and quickly jumped to -8.5 on Sunday night. Public perception of these two teams couldn’t be more opposite, with the Cowboys coming off an impressive blasting of the Vikings on the road in Week 11 and the Giants getting rolled by Detroit at home last weekend.

Adding in the injury concerns for the G-Men and the public appeal of “America’s Team” and this spread has spiked to -9.5 as of Wednesday morning. New York has multiple starters out or questionable in the secondary while the offensive line has four starters listed as questionable, reserves also up in the air, as well as starting TE Daniel Bellinger.

The Cowboys pass rush is among the best in the league, owning the second highest pressure rate per drop-back and a league-leading 35 sacks. Linebacker Micah Parsons is expected to play through an ankle injury on Thursday while DE DeMarcus Lawrence is listed as questionable after missing practice with both a foot injury and illness.

Dallas has been a money pit over the past 11 Thanksgiving Day games (1-10 ATS) but enters Week 12 with a 7-3 ATS count on the season. The Giants have an identical 7-3 ATS count but have failed to cover in two of their last three, including the 31-18 loss to the Lions as 3-point favorites last Sunday.

DraftKings sportsbooks are reporting 58% of bet count and 54% of handle taking the points with the Giants as of Wednesday morning. Covers Consensus shows 52% of picks backing New York on the road.

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Over/Under analysis

This Over/Under total opened as low as 43.5 points and has jumped as much as two points since Sunday night, sitting as high as 45.5 as of Wednesday.

The Cowboys offense was on full display in the win over Minnesota, racking up 40 points with a two-way attack on the ground and through the air. The Cowboys are No. 3 in EPA per play the past three weeks, amassing a total of 117 points in that span.

New York isn’t as potent with the points but is very efficient with the football. The Giants are 10th in EPA per play and methodically make their way up the field, rolling out one of the slower tempos in the league with a play every 28.4 seconds.

However, the G-Men may be forced to pick up the pace given the big spread and rising total. If the Cowboys following that game script, New York will be playing from behind and forced to go faster with more passing — which, in turn, puts the Giants at the mercy of this dangerous Dallas defense.

New York’s stop unit hasn’t been the best, ranked out 27th in DVOA, but doesn’t allow many points due to the offense’s plodding pace with the football chewing up possession and limiting the time opponents have on the attack. The secondary is very thin heading into Thanksgiving with Jackson out, two other starters listed as questionable, and reserve bodies banged up as well.

New York is 2-7-1 Over/Under on the season while Dallas owns a 3-6-1 O/U count. These NFC East rivals have produced a 5-2-1 O/U count in their last eight head-to-head meetings.

Betting Trend to Know

While the Cowboys are just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 Thanksgiving Day games, they do own a 9-2 ATS record in their last 11 matchups with the Giants. Find more NFL betting trends for Giants vs. Cowboys.

Game Info

Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Date: Thursday, November 24, 2022
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
Opening odds: Cowboys -7.5, 43 O/U

My Prediction

Dallas 27 -23 New York; And that’s…”The Lex Of It”